Three weeks are in the books for the Alliance of American Football (AAF) & although the results have been mixed both on and off the field —the big buzz this week is now around whether Johnny Manziel will join the league after getting the boot from the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League.
Manziel, was not only released from the CFL, but is banned from playing in Canada completely–leaving just the AAF or the XFL as the possible landing spots for the talented substance-abuse QB who has busted in every expectation since taking college football by storm. Could one of the eight teams of the AAF give him a chance?
From a betting perspective, the books here in Vegas are seeing a considerable drop in overall AAF handle as bettors starving to feed their football addiction have begun to sour on a league struggling for offense & players to identify with.
Among bettors the home teams continue to see significant support at the counters here in Vegas. All four home teams went 2-2 ATS & 3-1 SU and now stand at 8-4 ATS & 9-3 SU through three weeks of games. In terms of the totals, even though the AAF have set up rules to induce scoring (no extra points ONLY going for a two-point conversion after every touchdown) the books cant seem to set them low enough as for the ‘third’ straight week the four games went 3-1 to the ‘Under’ now 9-3 overall–failing to make the posted total by books. The books do seem to have a feel on who should ‘win’ the games though as all ‘favorites’ are 11-1 SU on the moneyline & 8-4 ATS.
The MGM Resorts here in Vegas has posted updated AAF futures odds with the Orlando Apollos are the favorites according to the boys in the desert:
- Orlando Apollos: With Arizona’s loss Steve Spurrier’s boys (3-0) now find themselves the favorites to win it all & lead the AAF with 32.7 PPG.
- Arizona Hotshots: The Hotshots’ (2-1) loss to Salt Lake leaves Rick Neuheisel’s squad falling in the rankings.
- San Diego Fleet: Mike Martz has the Fleet (2-1) tied atop the West with two straight wins & seeing their future odds drop to +350 from 8/1.
- Birmingham Iron: The Iron (3-0) defense has given up a league low 21 points so far & with Orlando are one of two undefeated teams remaining.
- Salt Lake Stallions: The Stallions (1-2) got QB Josh Woodrum back & knocked off Arizona. This week’s match-up with Orlando is a litmus test.
- San Antonio Commanders: Former Dallas Cowboys & current SA GM Daryl ‘Moose’ Johnston’s boys now stand at (1-2) & cant get going on offense.
- Memphis Express: The Express (0-3) have now turned to Zach Mettenberger at QB but their isn’t much to like with team.
- Atlanta Legends: Matt Simms & Christian Hackenberg are brutal, the defense has given up a league worst 92 points & are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS.
Week 4 Betting Lines:
Saturday March 2, 2019
San Diego Fleet (-6.5) @ Memphis Express (41.5)
Orlando Apollos (-4.5) @ Salt Lake Stallions (44.5)
Sunday March 3, 2019
San Antonio Commanders (+7.5) @ Birmingham Iron (39.5)
Atlanta Legends (+12) @ Arizona Hotshots (41.5)
The books continue to make huge adjustments with the totals as we now see the ‘highest’ total on the board at 44.5. In week one the ‘lowest’ posted total of the four games on the board was 57.5 showing a drastic correction by the odds-makers in AAF betting. In terms of the sides, we see our third double digit favorite in the AAF as the Arizona is -12 home favorites versus the worst power ranked team in the Atlanta Legends. The Express were 11.5 underdogs in Week 2 versus Arizona & covered but fell straight up (20-18) & were 16.5 ‘dogs last week versus Orlando & covered yet again but lost (21-17).