Saturday NFL Divisional Weekend Look-Ahead

#6-seed Indianapolis Colts (11-6) at #1 seed- Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Date: Saturday, January 12, 2019

Time: 4:35 pm EST/ 1:35 pm PST

Location: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MS

Spread: CHIEFS – 5.5

Total: 57

Moneyline: COLTS +190 | CHIEFS -240

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: COLTS (58%)  CHIEFS (42%)

The 2019 NFL Divisional Playoffs kicks off on Saturday featuring the 6th-seeded Andrew Luck & the red hot (11-6) Indianapolis Colts traveling to Arrowhead to take on Patrick Mahomes and the #1-Seed (12-4) Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs were as high as -6 early Monday but Colts support at the window has brought the number down to -5.5 around town here in most shops.  The boys here in the desert expect this to be the highest scoring game of the weekend with a total on the board set at 57.

The Colts come into this game with arguably the best defense left in the playoffs—yes you read that right. A team that has the prolific arm of the resurgent Andrew Luck is getting noticed for when he is not on the field. The Colts are playing perhaps the best football of any team in the NFL right now and come in fresh off a dominant 21-7 victory over the Houston Texans in the Wild Card last weekend. The Colts who have gone 10-1 in their last 11 games SU and rewarded bettors seven times going 7-3-1 ATS. The best formula for winning in the playoffs is a team that plays great defense and has a strong running game. Indianapolis used that formula to perfection last week suffocating Watson & Co and riding the legs of Marlon Mack (148 yds, TD) to a ground and pound victory to advance to the Divisional Round.

Betting the Chiefs through the first seven weeks of the season was the easiest bet to make out here in Vegas as they went 7-0 both SU and Against The Number. However, over their final nine games their backers at the window often left their tickets on the sports book floor as KC went 2-6-1 ATS. The Chiefs come into the game making bettors nervous as their only ATS win versus the spread in the final five weeks of the season came in Week #17, a 35-3 cake walk over AFC West rival Oakland Raiders who had nothing left to play for other than losing to keep their draft position come April.

The biggest question mark of this game is how will young phenom Patrick Mahomes–who turned in an MVP-caliber regular season—fare in his first career playoff game? Can you remember the last time the Chiefs have won a ‘home’ playoff game? OK, I will give you a minute to think about it. Well…you would have to go back to the Joe Montana led Chiefs and all the way back to 1993. Want even more pressure on the young signal caller? The Chiefs have ‘never’ won a home playoff game past the opening round! You would have have to go back through Chiefs QBs Trent Green, Elvis Grbac, Steve Bono, Matt Cassel, Alex Smith….well you get the point. Mahomes gets a shot to do something for this franchise that hasn’t been done in 26 years.

Colts-Chiefs Betting Trends

  • The Colts are 7-0 ATS vs teams with a winning record in 2018.
  • The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing as favorites.
  • The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Arrowhead.
  • The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
  • The Colts are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their past 16 meetings with the Chiefs.

#4-seed Dallas Cowboys (11-6) at #2-seed LA Rams (13-3)

Date: Saturday, January 12, 2019

Time: 8:15 pm EST/ 5:15 pm PST

Location: LA Memorial Coliseum – Los Angeles, CA

Spread: RAMS -7

Total: 49.5

Moneyline: COWBOYS +265 | RAMS -330

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: COWBOYS (53%)  RAMS (47%)

The Saturday Divisional Round night-cap gives us Dak & Zeke #4-seed NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys (11-6) as +7 point underdogs taking on the NFC West Champion LA Rams (13-3). The total opened here in Vegas at 50 and has since seen slight downturn to 49.5.

The Cowboys come into the Divisional Round via a 24-22 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. For Dallas backers it was a gut punch as the ‘Boys failed to cover as -2.5 favorites after giving up a backdoor touchdown + a two-point conversion in the final seconds to give Seattle bettors a late Christmas gift. The Cowboys played strong defense (vying with Colts as best defense remaining in the playoffs) once again completely shutting down the dominant Seahawks running game holding the NFL’s #1 rushing attack to a mere 73 yds on the ground. The ‘Boys big three of Dak, Zeke & Cooper stepped up big time for Jerry’s crew. If Dallas can find the same balance on offense and shut down a less than 100% healthy Todd Gurley the Cowboys could very well be moving on to the NFC Championship game.

The Rams come into this playoff contest as another shaky home favorite for bettors looking to blindly back the home team versus the number. The Rams went 13-3 SU but a putrid 7-8-1 ATS this season for those who supported Jared Goff & Co burning money an incredible rate for one of the NFL’s top teams. Now the bookies here in the desert are asking bettors to lay -7 points on a team with one of the worst ATS records in the NFL and a less than healthy Todd Gurley (knee) who has missed the last several games. Gurley could have used the past few weeks of rest to get healthy and the Rams will need him at every bit of full strength if they are going to cover this large number.

Cowboys vs Rams Betting Trends

  • The Rams went 13-3 SU but just 7-8-1 ATS this season while going 0-4-1 ATS vs teams with a winning record in 2018.
  • The OVER is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 Divisional Playoff Games.
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Cowboys last five road games vs teams with a winning record.
  • The Cowboys are just 3-9 SU in their last 12 playoff games, including 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven away from home.
  • The Rams are 19-4 SU in their last 23 as a Vegas favorite.

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