Sunday NFL Divisional Playoffs Look-Ahead

#5-seed LA Chargers (13-4) at #2 seed- New England Patriots (11-5)

Date: Sunday, January 13, 2019

Time: 1:05 pm EST/ 10:05 pm PST

Location: Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA

Spread: PATRIOTS – 4

Total: 47

Moneyline: CHARGERS +170 | CHIEFS -200

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: CHARGERS (59%)  PATRIOTS (41%)

The 2019 NFL Divisional Playoffs kicks off early here on Sunday featuring 5th-seeded Phillip Rivers & the red hot (13-4) LA Chargers traveling to Foxborough to take on Tom Brady and the #2-Seed (11-5) New England Patriots. The Pats were as high as -4.5 & some -5 early Monday morning but Chargers support at the window has brought the number down to -4 all around town here in most shops.  The boys here in the desert expect this to be the lowest scoring game of the weekend with a total on the board set at 47. The threat of inclement weather and snow has now been changed to just frigid temperatures but no precipitation.

The Chargers (10-7 ATS) come into this match up fresh off a resounding 23-17 victory over the Baltimore Ravens last weekend in the Wild Card Round. The score was not indicative of how dominant of a win this was for San Diego as their defense harassed Lamar Jackson for 3+ quarters forcing 3 turnovers. The Chargers have been absolute monsters on the road this season going 7-0 SU &  7-0 ATS in their last seven road game this season (including last weeks WC win) and 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in 2018 away from LA. Not only have they been a cash cow for their backers at the window but they have given bettors the comfort of winning the games by an average of 10 points per game and not making them even break a sweat most times. Looking even deeper — dating back to 2017 LA is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.

The Patriots (9-7 ATS) come into this Divisional game having gone 8-0 SU at home this season going 6-2 ATS in those games. Its seems like ages since the road to the Superbowl wasn’t going through Foxborough in the AFC as the Patriots lost the #1 overall seed this season to the Chiefs. The Patriots lost their best deep threat late in the season when WR Josh Gordon was suspended and it will be interesting to see if Brady can get going with Gronk and Edelman versus a Chargers defense that has taken its performance to the next level since the return of Joey Bosa from injury.

The Chargers seem to be the trendiest team being picked to win among the road teams this weekend as New England appears to be vulnerable and short-handed this post season but dont be so quick to count out Brady & Belicheck who have gone to 7 straight AFC Championship games. The Patriots could be ripe for the taking but Rivers will have to do something he has never done in his career–beat Brady in the playoffs.

Chargers-Patriots Betting Trends

  • The Chargers are 4-0 ATS vs teams with a winning record in 2018.
  • The UNDER is 4-0 in the Chargers last 4 playoff games.
  • The OVER is 8-0-1 in the Patriots last nine Divisional Playoff games.
  • The UNDER is 4-0 in the Patriots last 4 games overall in 2018.
  • The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with New England.
  • The Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
  • The UNDER has gone 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the clubs.

#6-seed Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) at #1-seed New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Date: Sunday, January 13, 2019

Time: 4:40 pm EST/ 1:40 pm PST

Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium – New Orleans, LA

Spread: SAINTS -8

Total: 51

Moneyline: EAGLES +300 | SAINTS -400

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: EAGLES (58%)  SAINTS (42%)

The Divisional Playoff Round wraps up Sunday afternoon when the defending Super Bowl Champion #6-seed Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) head down to New Orleans as the largest underdog of the weekend as +8 point ‘dogs taking on the #1-seed NFC South Champion Saints (13-3). The total opened here in Vegas at 51.5 and has since seen slight downturn to 51 but is expected to rise as kick-off approaches with public steam on the home team and over.

The folk lore of back-up QB Nick Foles continued last weekend as ‘Big Richard Nick’ (we keep it g-rated here at VW) pulled out a last second 16-15 win over the Bears in Chicago. Foles, last years Super Bowl MVP, continues to guide the Eagles on another improbable late season run following an injury to starting QB Carson Wentz. These two teams met back on Thanksgiving Weekend down at Mercedes Benz Stadium and the Saints absolutely took Wentz and the ‘Birds to the woodshed with a 48-7 beatdown. The Eagles (8-9 ATS) have rewarded their backers with four straight ATS wins while going 5-1 ATS dating back since the calendar moved to December.

The Saints (10-6 ATS) since beating the Eagles back in Week #11 secured the top seed in the NFC going 3-1 SU but a dismal 1-3 ATS in those games. If we look even deeper we see that since that win eight weeks ago the prolific Saints offense only managed one touchdown in games versus Dallas and Carolina. The Eagles on the other hand have covered three of their last four road games since that loss. The Saints have covered just three of eight games this season when the boys here in the desert had them favored by 6+ points. Foles is proving that last year’s magical run was no fluke and the Saints will need their defense to step up in the contest. Foles, 9-1 as a starter in late season games, now faces a Saints defense giving up the second most yards of any team via the air at 289 yds per game.

Eagles vs Saints Betting Trends

  • The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games this season.
  • The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games.
  • The OVER is 6-0 in the Saints last six home playoff games.
  • The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
  • The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

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