UFC Fight Night 143 Full Card Betting Breakdown

UFC Fight Night 143 Breakdown

Brooklyn, New York

TV

(Sharp info from @Y2Casey–The Best There Is in UFC)

 

Main Event:

Henry Cejudo +175 vs T.J. Dillashaw -210

PREDICTION:
Dillashaw did it. Like a pro, he backed up all the talk and successfully made the cut down to 125lbs, even being the first fighter to the scale Friday morning. The 135 lbs champ has had some strong showings as of late, and as a matter of fact, hasn’t looked back since his razor sharp split decision loss to Dominick Cruz back in 2016. Since that fight, Dillashaw has bested Raphael Assuncao and John Lineker, both via unanimous decision, and most recently knocking out Cody Garbrandt in two consecutive fights, ending all debate on who the 135 king is today. His journey down to 125 brings yet another fighter looking to become a two division champ, after seeing Nunes squash Cyborg weeks ago. Looking at what Dillashaw has done as of late, in comparison to Cejudo edging out former P4P champ Demetrious Johnson last August, everything points to Dillashaw cruising to victory Saturday night. But before we get caught speeding, lets consider a few things. The weight cut. Do we know just how much it will negatively impact TJ Saturday night? Cejudo will be game tonight and it will be interesting to see if a similiar gameplan works for him against Dillahsaw, which I see as his only shot to retain. I anticipate both fighters having their moments and even though I dislike the guy Dillashaw is my prediction to win.

BETTING: With the slim chance that Cejudo can hold Dillashaw down like he did against Johnson…AND if Dillashaw’s cut impairs his ability to fight at 100%, if that line creeps up over +200, I might take a stab just on value. Dillashaw is the right side though IMO and ITD at +155 is catching my eye.
REST OF CARD:

Allen Crowder +400 vs Greg Hardy -500

PREDICTION: Hardy is as green as you can get, but all things outside of the cage aside, this looks to be a set up for another Hardy finish. Guy has a strong mental game and I don’t see him getting the debut jitters others have had. Couple that with the absolute killer instinct you can’t teach, Hardy should get the finish via KO.

 

BETTING: The lines are ridiculous on this fight all things considering. Grab some popcorn.

Gregor Gillespie -490 vs Yancy Medeiros +390

PREDICTION: I’ve been really impressed with Gillespie and he’s finally matched with a decent opponent. The line opened at -230 which seems more reasonable that what we see today. Coming out party for Gillespie who should move on to 13-0.
BETTING: I think the OVER 1.5 rounds at -120 is fair. Medeiros should be able to hang around at least for that I’d imagine?

 

Best Betting Plays:

24401 Cejudo/Dillashaw-Fight WONT go to DECISION -110

24441 Gillespie/Medeiros Ov 1.5 Rds -120

24406 Vanzant -150

24438 Benavidez via DECISION -115

Dogs to Watch

24438 Bermudez +115

24457 Rencountre+135

2019-01-20T07:08:39+00:00