Vegas Whispers NCAA Sweet 16 Thursday Sharp Plays!

NCAA TOURNAMENT – WEST REGIONAL –Thursday, March 28

7:09 PM EST/4:09 PM PST @ Honda Center – Anaheim, CA

655 Florida State +7.5 (-110) 146½ Moneyline: (+280)

656 Gonzaga -7.5 (-110) 146½ Moneyline: (-340)

TRENDS:

  • Seminoles are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games.
  • Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
  • Over is 6-0 in Seminoles last 6 non-conference games.
  • Under is 6-2 in Bulldogs last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

This game has the biggest ‘revenge’ angle of any of the Sweet 16 games this weekend. Florida State ended Gonzaga’s season last year in this round (75-60) upsetting the favored ‘Zags and you can be sure the Bulldogs have been eyeing this potential match-up since the brackets were revealed on Selection Sunday. Gonzaga head coach Mark Few was not shy asked about his feelings to take on Florida State for the second straight year in the NCAA Tournament:

 “We wouldn’t want it any other way. It just so happened that we got Florida State again in the Sweet 16 and we have a special itch to take care of against them.”

The Seminoles come in red hot having won eight of their last nine games and fresh off a complete thrashing (90-62) of Ja Morant and the Murray State Racers in the Round of 32 on Saturday. The ‘Zags are very similar to Villanova last season in that they have could have multiple players selected in the first-round of the NBA draft in a few months: Rui Hachimura (WCC Player of the Year) and Brandon Clarke (WCC Defensive Player of the Year). Clarke, who leads the nation in blocks (110) poured in 36 points in the win over Baylor, breaking the ‘school’ NCAA Tournament record of 35 points previously held by Adam Morrison. Gonzaga. led by Hachimura (19.7 ppg & an off the charts 46.9 % from beyond the arm), lead the nation in scoring offense (88.6 ppg) and scoring margin (23.8).

“We have good revenge in here,” Hachimura said. “We just have to win. I’ve got to be aggressive. As a team, we have to be the most physical team.”

The line opened up at -7 on Gonzaga and there has been strong support and now stands at -7.5 at nearly all shops both globally and here in the desert. Even though the ‘Zags burned their backers vs Baylor (including those here at Vegas Whispers) failing to cover as 13.5 point favorites–only winning by 12 after leading the game by 20+ in the second half, will be focused and hungry versus Florida State. Not only do you get a one seed here, you get a focused/angry one-seed with a great motivation angle to not only win but win big.

Sharp Lean: Gonzaga (-7.5) 

NCAA TOURNAMENT – SOUTH REGIONAL –Thursday, March 28

7:29 PM EST/4:29 PM PST @ KFC Yum Center – Louisville, KY

651 Purdue +1.5 (-110) 146½ Moneyline: (+105)

652 Tennessee -1.5 (-110) 146½ Moneyline: (-125)

TRENDS:

  • Over is 39-17-1 in Purdue’s last 57 neutral site games.
  • Tennessee are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
  • Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Boilermakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Over is 6-0 in Volunteers last 6 overall.
  • Over is 6-0 in Volunteers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Purdue comes into the Sweet Sixteen off two very impressive performances so far, while Tennessee is here via an overtime scare versus Iowa. Purdue, who dismantled the defending Champion Villanova Wildcats, are 0-4 SU in the Sweet 16 under coach Matt Painter. However, Purdue’s star guard Carson Edwards (23.6 ppg) is at peak form after pouring in a career-high 42 points (9-16 of 3 pt) against Villanova on Saturday–is the key player as the Boilermakers only returning starter from last season in this match-up. The Volunteers defense has not been great of late allowing an average of 78 points the last six games and this will be a huge test for the 2-seed. However, junior guard Lamonte Turner– who has become of the nation’s best perimeter defender gives the Vols a weapon the Wildcats didnt have in defending Edwards.

“I expect him to try to come out and get 42 again, or 50, but it ain’t gonna happen,” Turner said. “I’m gonna … you know, I’m taking it personally to come out and take on that matchup, and I’m looking forward to it.”

Tennessee junior forward Grant Williams who resembles an old-time throwback with a solid low post game and a high basketball IQ–filled up the box score versus Iowa with (19 pts, 7 rebs, 3 blocks, 4 steals & 5 assists) while senior teammate Admiral Schofield has gone for back-to-back 19 point efforts and is shooting 41% from beyond the arc for the year. With the Vols dynamic duo able to focus on the offensive end and not be forced to chase Edwards around on the defensive end gives Rick Barnes team a huge advantage in this game. The line opened up at -1 on Tennessee and there has been strong support by the sharps and now stands at -1.5 at nearly all shops both globally and here in the desert.

The Pick: Tennessee (ML -125) 

NCAA TOURNAMENT – WEST REGIONAL –Thursday, March 28

9:39 PM EST/6:39 PM PST @ Honda Center – Anaheim, CA

657 Texas Tech +2 (-110) 126 Moneyline: (+110)

658 Michigan -2 (-110) 126 Moneyline: (-130)

TRENDS:

  • Red Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Texas Tech is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
  • Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Under is 6-2 in Red Raiders last 8 neutral site games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 overall.

This Sweet 16 game will feature the two of the best defensive teams in the country. Michigan which is ranked second in the nation allowing a paltry (58.2 ppg ) stayed true to form holding Montana to (55 pts) and Florida to (49 pts) in the second round. Texas Tech, which is ranked third nationally in scoring defense (59.2) held Northern Kentucky to (57 pts) before holding down high octane Buffalo to just (58 pts) and have won 13 of their last 15 games and hopes to take down a Big Ten opponent in the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive year after beating Purdue 78-65 in 2018. Texas Tech has won 21 games by double digits this season, however the degree of difficultly will ratchet up in this Sweet 16 matchup with Michigan.

Of Michigan’s six losses, four have come against Michigan State (three times) and Wisconsin, who each rank in the top eight in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 in scoring defense. But no defense Michigan has seen is quite as aggressive and obsessed about getting stops and taking charges. The Red Raiders (28-6) held the Bulls, one of the nation’s highest-scoring offenses, to a season-low 58 points and forced them to miss 18 straight field goals. Texas Tech star guard Jarrett Culver, who leads the Aggies in scoring, rebounding and assists is the key player in this game–and the country could very well be watching this year’s Kemba Walker. Last year it took the nation’s most efficient offense (Villanova) to take down Michigan last year, this time it will could be the country’s top team in defensive efficiency (Texas Tech).

The line opened up at +2 on Texas Tech and there has been quiet support by the sharps at all shops both globally and here in the desert and don’t be surprised to see this line steam to the Red Raiders side as tip-off approaches.

The Pick: Texas Tech (+2) 

NCAA TOURNAMENT – SOUTH REGIONAL –Thursday, March 28

9:59 PM EST/6:59 PM PST @ KFC Yum Center – Louisville, KY

653 Oregon+8.5 (-110) 119 Moneyline: (+330)

654 Virginia -8.5 (-110) 119 Moneyline: (-450)

TRENDS:

  • Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
  • Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
  • Ducks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Cavaliers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Under is 15-5-1 in Ducks last 21 overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 neutral site games.

 

Virginia, which became the first No. 1 seed in history to lose to a 16th seed in the NCAA Tournament last season, rallied from 14 points down to beat Gardner-Webb in the opening round but failed to cover as 22.5 pt favorites. In the second round, the Cavaliers rewarded backers covering as 10.5 point favorites beating Oklahoma 63-51 Sunday. Virginia leads the nation in scoring defense (55.0) and will need to bring their ‘A’ game versus arguably the hottest team in the tournament–Oregon Ducks, who have won 10 straight contests after knocking off fifth-seeded Wisconsin by 18 points in the first round and rolling past No. 13 seed UC Irvine 73-54 in the second on Sunday. The Ducks have not only won 10 games in a row but they have also cashed 10 in a row ATS. Two of Virginia’s three losses this season have come against the 2019 NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed Duke. Getting in front of this Ducks steam is scary, but if there’s a team who can unravel Oregon’s perplexing zone, it’s Virginia.

Sharp Lean: Virginia -8.5

VW SHARP PLAYS:

652 Tennessee ML -125

657 Texas Tech +2

Additional SHARP LEANS: 

656 Gonzaga -7.5

653 Virginia -8.5

 

2019-03-29T04:58:37+00:00