WEEK 6: TNF Sharp Betting Play

Moneyline: NYG: (+850) | NE: (-1450)

Spread: NYG: +17 (-110) | NE: -17 (-110)

Total: 41.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 41.5 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: NYG: 27% | NE: 73%


If the sharp action is any indication for what we are in store for Thursday night, all fantasy owners need to employ New England running backs and the New England D/ST. According to the information provided by to Sports Illustrated and FullTime Fantasy by Vegas Whispers, the sharps are backing the Patriots laying the -17 points as well as pounding the UNDER. The Under opened at 44.5, but due to significant rain and winds in the forecast, the Under has seen such sharp action it now stands at 41.5. The value on the play is long gone and now that the total has moved through the prime number of 42 it can not be offered as a play at the current number of 41.5. PASS. The Patriots (5-0 SU & 2-2 ATS) will be looking for their third straight home win when they take on a very short-handed Giants club that will be without RBs Saquon Barkley & Wayne Gallman, TE Evan Engram and WR Sterling Shepard.  The four of those players have accounted for 65% of the NYG offense in 2019. New York (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) will be facing arguably the best defense in the NFL in New England that has allowed a league-low 34 points through five games. The slew of injuries on New York’s side combined with a nor’Easter in the forecast means there should not be any players trusted to be in started lineups from the Giants side of the ball. Fantasy players should start RBs Sony Michel and James White, WR Julien Edleman and the New New England D/ST with confidence. 

The Play: New England -17 (2 Units) 


The Patriots are 20-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record

The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games

The Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall

NE is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record

Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 home games